Prediction of Three-Year Mortality After Deceased Donor Kidney Transplantation in Adults with Pre-Transplant Donor and Recipient Variables.

BACKGROUND Prognostic models for 3-year mortality after kidney transplantation based on pre-transplant donor and recipient variables may avoid futility and thus improve donor organ allocation. MATERIAL AND METHODS There were 1546 consecutive deceased-donor kidney transplants in adults (January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2012) used to identify pre-transplant donor and recipient variables with significant independent influence on long-term survival (Cox regression modelling). Detected factors were used to develop a prognostic model for 3-year mortality in 1289 patients with follow-up of >3 years (multivariable logistic regression). The sensitivity and specificity of this model's prognostic ability was assessed with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). RESULTS Highly immunized recipients [hazard ratio (HR: 2.579, 95% CI: 1.272-4.631], high urgency recipients (HR: 3.062, 95% CI: 1.294-6.082), recipients with diabetic nephropathy (HR: 3.471, 95% CI: 2.476-4.751), as well as 0, 1, or 2 HLA DR mismatches (HR: 1.349, 95% CI: 1.160-1.569) were independent and significant risk factors for patient survival. Younger recipient age ≤42.1 years (HR: 0.137, 95% CI: 0.090-0.203), recipient age 42.2-52.8 years (HR: 0.374, 95% CI: 0.278-0.498), recipient age 52.9-62.8 years (HR: 0.553, 95% CI: 0.421-0.723), short cold ischemic times ≤11.8 hours (HR: 0.602, 95% CI: 0.438-0.814) and cold ischemic times 11.9-15.3 hours (HR: 0.736, 95% CI: 0.557-0.962) reduced this risk independently and significantly. The AUROC of the derived model for 3-year post-transplant mortality with these variables was 0.748 (95% CI: 0.689-0.788). CONCLUSIONS Older, highly immunized or high urgency transplant candidates with anticipated longer cold ischemic times, who were transplanted with the indication of diabetic nephropathy should receive donor organs with no HLA DR mismatches to improve their mortality risk.

Suicides between 2010 and 2014 in the German Armed Forces-Comparison of Suicide Registry Data and a German Armed Forces Survey.

BACKGROUND: The last 10 years have seen an increase in the number of suicides in the US Armed Forces. Accordingly, the topic of suicides in the German military has received a lot of attention in media and science alike. METHODS: This study retrospectively examined all suicides (N = 107) committed by active, nonretired German military personnel from 2010 to the end of 2014, analyzing archived medical records. In a second step, these data were compared to a representative German Armed Forces survey conducted in 2012 (N = 1,549). RESULTS: The following risk groups for suicide were identified: male (OR = 9.6), single (OR = 7.8), aged over 45 years (OR = 4.0), short period of service (<2 years; OR = 2.7), and low level of education (OR = 2.2). Surprisingly, military personnel with little experience in deployments abroad (<2 missions) showed double the risk (OR = 2.0) compared to those who had been deployed more than once. DISCUSSION: Multiple robustness checks show that being single, aged over 45 years, and having obtained a low level of education exhibit the most robust effects on suicide risk. CONCLUSION: Efforts should be made to develop and evaluate risk group-focused prevention programs. We conclude, that further studies should be initiated to show differences of risk groups between lethal and nonlethal suicidal behavior.

Identification of patients at risk for renal impairment after living donor kidney transplantation.

PURPOSE: Outcome after living donor kidney transplantation is highly relevant, since recipient and donor were exposed to notable harm. Reliable identification of risk factors is necessary. METHODS: Three hundred sixty-six living donor kidney transplants were included in this observational retrospective study. Relevant risk factors for renal impairment 1 year after transplantation and delayed graft function were identified with univariable and multivariable binary logistic regression and ordinal regression analysis. RESULTS: Eighty-four patients (26.6 %) suffered from renal impairment KDIGO stage ≥4 1 year post-transplant; median estimated glomerular filtration rate was 35.3 ml/min. In multivariable ordinal regression, male recipient sex (p < 0.001), recipient body mass index (p = 0.006), donor age (p = 0.002) and high percentages of panel reactive antibodies (p = 0.021) were revealed as independent risk factors for higher KDIGO stages. After adjustment for post-transplant data, recipient male sex (p < 0.001), donor age (p = 0.026) and decreased early renal function at the first post-transplant outpatient visit (p < 0.001) were identified as independent risk factors. Delayed graft function was independently associated with long stay on the waiting list (p = 0.011), high donor body mass index (p = 0.043), prolonged warm ischemic time (p = 0.016) and the presence of preformed donor-specific antibodies (p = 0.043). CONCLUSIONS: Broadening the donor pool with non-blood related donors seems to be legitimate, although with respect to careful medical selection, since donor age in combination with male recipient sex were shown to be risk factors for decreased graft function. Warm ischemic time and waiting time need to be kept as short as possible to avoid delayed graft function. Transplantation across HLA and ABO borders did not affect outcome significantly.